中国与“一带一路”沿线国家双边贸易周期的动态变迁测度

文章基于1996-2017年期间中国与“一带一路”沿线国家进出口贸易增长率年度数据,运用附加结构突变点的非线性马尔科夫区制转移模型,测度中国与沿线国家整体、各区域、各国双边贸易周期的阶段性差异和时变性特征。研究发现：（1）中国与沿线国家双边贸易周期在2008年前后存在明显的结构性差异,在突变点后,中国与沿线国家整体、各区域的双边贸易平均增长率以及高、低平均增长率普遍大幅降低。（2）2008年全球金融危机对各区域的影响程度不同,其中,欧盟区域遭受的冲击相对最深,亚洲非盟区域次之。此外,与联盟区域相比较,非联盟区域抵御双边贸易市场剧烈波动的能力更加有限。（3）中国与“一带一路”沿线国家整体、各区域、各国的双边贸易周期普遍表现出收缩惰性的“亚洲金融危机效应”（1996-2000年）、强势扩张的“WTO效应”（2001-2007年）、宽幅震荡的“全球金融危机效应”（2008-2012年）以及“V型”复苏发展的“‘一带一路’效应”（2013-2017年）。（4）沿线各国双边贸易的动态演化特征存在较强的关联性,同时,沿线各国经历双边贸易扩张以及收缩的时点、持续期、累计时间普遍存在差异。协同性程度指标进一步显示,沿线各国与整体双边贸易周期的协同度普遍较高,且突变点后沿线各国与整体的协同度普遍高于突变点前。

Dynamic Evolution Identificationof Bilateral Trade Cycles between China and B&R Countries

Based on the growth rate data of bilateral trade between China and B&R (Belt and Road) countries form 1996 to 2017, we apply a nonlinear MS model with a structural break to investigate the periodic characteristics of aggregate, regional and national bilateral trade cycles between China and B&R countries. We finally obtain some meaningful results. First, there are obvious structural differences across B&R countries in the trade cycles around 2008, the estimated average growth rate, high and low average growth rate of aggregate and regional trade descend dramatically after the structural break. Second, the global financial crisis have different impacts on these regions, among the six regions, the European Union region suffered the deepest, then followed by the Non-Union region in Asia. In addition, compared with Union regions, the Non-Union regions seems to be less capable to prevent trade markets from drastic fluctuation. Third, the aggregate, regional and most national trade cycles present Asian financial crisis effect with long duration of recession during 1996-2000, WTO effect with long duration of expansion during 2001-2007 periods, global financial crisis effect with wide volatility during 2008-2012 periods, and Belt and Road effect with "V-shaped" recovery and development during 2013-2017 periods. Forth, There is a strong correlation for the dynamic evolution of bilateral trade between the B&R Countries, while the specific time point, maintainability and cumulative duration is different for trade expansion and contraction that B&R Countries experience, and their concordances with aggregate trade cycle in post-break periods is generally higher than in the pre.