税收政策对居民消费的“异质性”效应——基于规模结构双重视角下的实证分析

在全球经济形势愈加严峻及中央实施"双循环"新发展格局的背景下,充分发挥税收政策对居民消费的驱动作用具有重要意义。以往基于常参数计量经济模型的研究忽略了不同经济时期税收政策对居民消费的"异质性"效应。文章采用DAG递归预测的方差分解法,对于税收政策与居民消费间的动态因果关系进行识别,并构建带有随机波动率的时变参数因子扩展向量自回归模型,分别从税收规模和税制结构视角出发,探究税收总量、不同税系、不同税类以及不同税种对居民消费的时变效应。研究发现：（1）不同时期税收政策对居民消费的影响程度差异较大,经济萧条时期税收政策对居民消费的影响并不显著,危机后影响程度大幅提高并长期稳定在较高水平。（2）从税收规模来看,税收政策对居民消费产生极为显著的"非凯恩斯效应"。从税制结构来看,直接税的扩张对居民消费产生显著的促进效应;商品税及其内部消费税、增值税的扩张显著"挤出"消费,关税轻微"挤入"消费,近年来增值税的"挤出效应"大幅增强;个人所得税对消费的"挤入效应"显著强于企业所得税;财产税的总体扩张对消费产生"挤出效应",但占比相对较高的房产税、契税和土地增值税并未"挤出"消费。因此,政策当局应适度降低商品税税负水平、逐步下调个人所得税税率、完善财产税制。

The “Heterogeneity” Effect of Tax Policy on Resident Consumption: An Empirical Analysis from the Dual Perspectives of Scale and Structure

In the context of the increasingly severe and complex global economic situation and the implementation of a new "dual circulation" development pattern by the central government, it is imperative to clarify the relationship between tax structure and household consumption in different economic periods as soon as possible, giving full play to the positive role of tax policy in promoting consumption and expanding domestic demand is of great practical significance to the implementation of the guiding ideology of economic and social development in the 14th five-year plan. Taking into account that the structure of the tax system is constantly adjusted as a country's economic development stage, economic structure and policy objectives change, in different economic periods, the conduction effect and the mechanism of the adjustment of the tax system structure on the residents' consumption will also be different. Therefore, the impact of the change of tax structure on residents' consumption is time-varying, which leads to the lack of practical economic significance of the previous conclusions based on the constant parameter econometric model, this is one of the important reasons why the previous research on the impact of tax policy on household consumption is controversial. Based on this, this paper uses the variance decomposition method of DAG recursive prediction to identify the dynamic causality between tax policy and residents’ consumption, and constructs a time-varying parameter factor extension vector autoregression with stochastic volatility (SV-TVP-FAVAR), from the perspective of tax scale and tax structure, this paper explores the time-varying effects of total tax, different tax systems, different tax categories and different taxes on residents’ consumption. The findings are as follows: first, in the area of dynamic causal identification, the influence degree of tax policy on residents’ consumption is different in different periods, and it is not significant in economic depression period. After the crisis, the influence degree is greatly increased and stable in a long time.Second, in the area of time-varying impact effect, from the perspective of tax revenue scale, the expansion of China’s total tax revenue during Q1-Q4 in 2007 will "crowd in" residents’ consumption, and "crowd out" capital stock and GDP growth, during this period, the tax policy had a very significant "Non-Keynesian Effect" on the consumption of residents. From the perspective of tax system structure, the expansion of direct tax has a significant promoting effect on residents’ consumption; The expansion of commodity tax, its internal consumption tax and value-added tax has a significant "crowding out" consumption, and the tariff has a slight "crowding in" consumption, in recent years, the "crowding-out effect" of value-added tax has been greatly strengthened; The "crowding-in effect" of individual income tax on consumption is significantly stronger than that of enterprise income tax; The overall expansion of property tax has produced "crowding-out effect" on consumption, but property taxes, deed taxes and value-added tax, which account for a relatively high proportion, are not crowding out consumption. Therefore, the policy authorities should reduce the level of commodity tax burden, gradually reduce the individual income tax rate, improve the property tax system, so as to promote the construction of the new development pattern of "domestic circulation as the main body".