货币互换协议、金融市场与中国对外直接投资

基于2003-2018年169个国家的面板数据，文章利用多期双重差分方法探讨了货币互换协议对我国对外直接投资规模与密集度的影响，并通过PSM-DID方法和证伪检验对模型的稳健性进行验证。在此基础上，运用中介效应和调节效应检验方法对货币互换政策的金融市场作用机制进行分析。研究发现，货币互换协议对我国OFDI规模与密集度均有显著积极影响；预期汇率风险是货币互换协议促进我国OFDI的重要影响机制，中介传导而非调节效应是主要影响渠道，而利率市场的影响机制尚未发挥作用。在经济全球化和复杂的国际形势下，这一研究对我国进一步推动国家间金融领域深化合作和推进人民币国际化以畅通国内国际双循环具有重要参考价值。

Currency Swap Agreement,Financial Market and China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment

By 2019, China has signed bilateral currency swap agreements with 36 countries with a total scale of over 11 trillion yuan, which should have played a significant role in maintaining the stability of the international financial market and promoting bilateral trade and investment. This article focuses on the impact of currency swap agreements on the scale and intensity of Chinese outward foreign direct investment (OFDI), the multi-period double difference model being used to explore such effect and PSM-DID method as well as falsification test being applied to verify the model's robustness. Moreover, both the financial market's intermediary mechanisms and adjustment mechanisms are inspected to study the currency swap policy's effect on Chinese OFDI. Using the panel data of 169 countries from 2003 to 2018, we found that currency swap agreements have significantly improved the level of Chinese OFDI, with an increase of the OFDI scale by about 39.3% and an increase of the OFDI intensity by about 24.5%. Furthermore, exchange rate markets are the determinant mechanism for currency swap agreements to promote Chinese outward foreign direct investment, and the intermediary transmissions of exchange rate risk forecast, rather than adjustment transmissions, are the main influence channel. For exchange rate risk forecast will restrain Chinese OFDI, bilateral currency swap agreements can effectively reduce the forecasted risk of deviation from the expected level of exchange rate and the forecasted fluctuation risk of exchange rate, thus promoting Chinese OFDI development. Specifically the currency swap agreements stipulate that the exchange rate should be fixed when necessary, which could change the exchange rate expectation of investors and reduce the forecasted deviation risk and excessive fluctuation risk, similar to the exchange rate target area's function. Meanwhile, with the channel of local currencies use for cross-border settlement, the currency swap agreements could avoid the exchange rate risk caused by the fluctuation of the third country currency, such as US dollar. Such exchange rate market mechanisms provide a stable investment environment for Chinese enterprises and effectively boost the scale of Chinese OFDI, although the mechanisms have no obvious effect on the promotion of OFDI intensity. As for the interest rate markets mechanism inspection, the currency swap agreements have not yet worked due to the underdevelopment of RMB offshore market and the financing difficulty for enterprises' foreign investment. In addition, various robust tests like PSM-DID method with kernel matching and nearest neighbour matching as well as falsification test of the policy time change show that the model specification is suitable and the conclusions are robust. Our findings are meaningful for Chinese outward foreign direct investment and for international financial policy cooperation. Under the trend of anti-globalization as well as the complex international economic relationship and situation, this research provides a reference for China to further deepen the international financial field cooperation. Signing currency swap agreement with more countries to promote the internationalization of RMB may not only promote the development of China's outward foreign direct investment and smooth the domestic and foreign double circulation pattern, but also play an important role in stabilizing the international financial markets and safeguarding the international economic order in line with the interests of all parties.