新疆社会经济发展的环境效应分析

本文首先运用直线无量纲化法构造1985年-2008年新疆环境负荷综合指数，利用随机回归影响模型（STIRPAT）分析了16岁-64岁人口比重、人均GDP、工业能耗强度对新疆环境负荷的影响，结果表明三种因素对新疆环境负荷都有显著的正向作用；其次，基于VEC模型的广义脉冲响应函数分析和方差：分解分析表明，三种因素对新疆环境负荷的正向作用都具有持续性特征，并且长期来讲人均GDP的正向影响效应最大。研究认为，在目前新疆社会经济发展现状下，政府应当充分发挥其主导作用，通过有效的市场推动方式和完善的公众参与机制，降低环境负荷水平，实现新疆社会经济的可持续发展。

A Study on the Environmental Effect by Social and Economic Development in Xinjiang

The paper constructed 1985 -2008 Xinjiang environment load index using the linear dimensionless method, utilizing the STIRPAT model analyzed the influence of the proportion of population aged 16 - 64, per capita GDP and industrial energy consumption intensity on comprehensive environment load from the static angle, the results showed that this three factors were sig- nificant positive influence to environment load. Secondly, generalized impulse response function and variance decomposition anal- ysis basing on the VEC model show that the positive impact of these factors on Xinjiang＇ s environmental load has a persistent fea- ture. And in the long term the GDP per capita effect on environment load is the biggest. Therefore, for achieving sustainable socio - economic development of Xinjiang, government should give full play to its leading role, though combining effective market - driven approach and comprehensive mechanism for public participation