Building Trade Barriers and Knocking Them Down |
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Authors: | David M Gould & Graeme L Woodbridge |
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Institution: | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, PO Box 655906, Dallas, TX 75265, USA |
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Abstract: | This paper examines the dynamic behavior of trade protection and liberalization. Consistent with evidence on the development of trade policies, policy decisions are modeled as the outcome of a political contest between import-competing interests and exporters. Uncertainty about the success of political contests yields a dynamic equilibrium in which tariffs gradually increase over time. Eventually, increasing tariffs reduce profits in the exporting sector to such a degree that exporters enter the political arena and lobby actively against protection. Depending on the market characteristics, a political contest may generate a liberalization or a move toward autarky. |
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