Asset prices in dynamic production economies with time-varying risk

We examine the effect of changes in output uncertainty on theprice of aggregate capital and on the prices of levered claimson capital. The relation between the volatility of the marginalproduct of capital and the price of capital depends on the levelof capital adjustment costs and the elasticity of intertemporalsubstitution. For available estimates of this elasticity thevalue of capital and risk are directly related while the valueof levered equity claim on capital may be decreasing in risk.We use these results to analyze the argument that increasedrisk was responsible for the U.S. stock market decline of the1970s.