人口年龄结构、城乡居民基本养老保险对农村居民消费率的影响——基于2010—2017年中国省际面板数据的实证分析

利用世代交叠(OLG)模型和2010—2017年中国省际面板数据,实证分析人口年龄结构、城乡居民基本养老保险(简称“城乡居保”)对农村居民消费率的影响。研究发现:老年抚养比、预期寿命均与农村居民消费存在显著的负向关系,少儿抚养比与农村居民消费不存在显著性关系;城乡居保的缴费率、覆盖率与农村居民消费存在显著正向关系,但是城乡居保统一与农村居民消费不存在显著性关系,城乡居保缴费率与覆盖率对农村居民消费存在交互作用;农村居民的消费习惯较为平稳,农村居民收入增长会抑制农村居民消费支出。建议提高城乡居保待遇水平,巩固和完善缴费激励机制,明确政府财政补贴和个人缴费责任。

The Influence of Population Age Structure and Basic Old-age Insurance for Urban and Rural Residents on Rural Residents'Consumption Rate--Based on the Empirical Analysis of China's Provincial Panel Data from 2010 to 2017

Using the OLG model and the 2010-2017 provincial panel data,this paper empirically analyzed the impact of population age structure and basic old-age insurance for urban and rural residents on the consumption rate of rural residents.The study shows as follow:the elderly dependency ratio and life expectancy are negatively correlated with rural residents'consumption while the child dependency ratio is not significantly correlated with rural residents'consumption;there is a significant positive relationship between the contribution rate and coverage rate of insurance and the consumption of rural residents,but there is no significant relationship between the unification of insurance and the consumption of rural residents;there is an interaction between the contribution rate and coverage rate of insurance and the consumption of rural residents;the consumption habits of rural residents are relatively stable,and the growth of rural residents'income inhibits the consumption expenditure of rural residents.To improve the level of basic pension,consolidate and improve the payment incentive mechanism,clarify government financial subsidies and individual payment responsibilities are suggested.