Vergleich von ökonomischen und biometrischen Risiken in der Personenversicherung

In life insurance both the time and the amount of future payments between insurer and policyholder may be stochastic; biometrical as well as financial risks are transferred to the insurer. We present an approach that allows to decompose the randomness of the discounted value of future benefits and premiums to a sum whose addends correspond to the uncertainty of the policy development, the interest rates, the probabilities of death, the probabilities of disablement, etc. Upon modeling the actuarial assumptions stochastically, we quantify these risk factors for typical life insurance contracts and compare them with each other. Contrary to a common folklore, the examples show that the systematic biometrical risks are in many cases not marginal compared to the interest rate risk.