中国旅游卫星账户2007延长表编算研究

旅游宏观统计积弱,致使旅游业既难以"摸清自身家底",也难以形成明确的产业"身份"进入国民经济产业研究的话语体系,甚至在产业规模测定的实践和理论研究当中还存在明显误区,造成旅游经济的感性认识有余,而理性的量化支撑不足。为此,文章应用旅游卫星账户和投入产出理论,结合入境旅游和国内旅游统计调查实际,构建了一套符合国际统计核算标准和旅游卫星账户框架要求的旅游业增加值算法流程,测算得出2007年我国旅游业增加值占国民经济的比重约为2.67%,与美国、加拿大等国家的测算结果相近。文章所构架的算法体系,有助于更加客观和准确地了解旅游业在国民经济中的地位,更为借助可计算一般均衡、投入产出价格影响等模型测算旅游业完全经济影响,提供了一个更加精确和有效的基础性框架。

Research on Prolong of 200？ China Tourism Satellite Account Compilation

Because of the undefined boundaries of the tourism industry, the objective of tourism statistics has been largely to provide feedback to individual trading groups, rather than to the interpretation and analysis of a highly standardized production activity. This apparent limitation within tourism statistics makes it difficult to gauge the scale and status of the tourism industry. Since the closing years of the last century, the Tourism Satellite Account （TSA） framework has gradually become the internationally accepted scientific method for conducting statistical investigations of tourism. However, there are a number of constraints associated with this method. Firstly, the compilation of a TSA requires a large-scale sample survey and considerable costs in terms of capital and human and physical resources. Secondly, the results obtained from the application of this method entail a certain degree of deviation from people＇ s daily experiences with which tourism is evidently more closely associated compared with industrial activities and productive service activities. Thirdly, the challenges of matching the statistical results of a TSA with the demands of sectionalism are considerable compared with the simpler consideration of gross income from tourism and its proportionate contribution to GDP as indicators of the size of the tourism industry. However, in terms of accuracy, gross income from tourism as a proportion of GDP provides only a speculative measure of the industry＇ s total economic contribution. As an indicator, it does not meet the requirements of the principles of statistics. Consequently, China＇s macro statistics on tourism present a dilemma in the long term： on one hand, they are accurate but not good to use; on the other hand, they are good to use but not accurate. This dilemma has led to the inability of the tourism industry to ascertain its own status. It has also failed to penetrate research discourses on the national economy and industry. Moreover, some evident errors in theory and practice regarding the calculation of the scale of the tourism industry have resulted in superficial perceptions about the tourism economy within society, but rarely in rational quantitative support. A discussion on the pros and cons of statistical methods used to investigate tourism is, in our view, futile. Instead, we believe it is necessary to extend beyond this discussion to initiate action relating to statistical accounting of the tourism industry. This is important, because it is possible to calculate the main index of the TSA based on China＇ s current statistical system. In this study, we combine a TSA and input-output theory with a survey of inbound and domestic tourism. We develop a set of algorithm processes to account for added value of the tourism industry that meet the standards of international statistics and the TSA. Our findings indicate that the added value of the tourism industry accounts for 2.67% of China＇ s GDP; a figure that is comparable to those obtained for the United States, Canada, and several other countries. It should be noted that this proportion reflects only the direct contribution of the tourism industry to the total national economy, and does not include indirect impacts due to associated effects. One factor that may commonly be excluded from the calculation process is that of sales prices in the tourism survey data, with the compilation of input-output tables being based on producer prices. We eliminated the significant difference of prices through targeted conversion according to tax rates for different industries. The algorithm process developed in this study contributes to an objective and accurate understanding of the status of the tourism industry in the national economy. It provides a precise and effective basic framework for calculating the full impact of the tourism economy using a computable general equilibrium model and an input-output price effect model.