| 基于PLS的铁路行包运量预测模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 贾玉泉,季常煦,贾利民,杨旭.基于PLS的铁路行包运量预测模型研究[J].铁道运输与经济,2006,28(10):80-82. |
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| 作者姓名： | 贾玉泉 季常煦 贾利民 杨旭 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京交通大学,交通运输学院,北京,100044 |
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| 摘 要： | 在阐述基于偏最小二乘回归法(PLS)的建模原理与求解方法的基础上,通过对铁路行包运量影响因素的分析,利用2004年有关生产统计数据及影响因素的统计数据,建立了铁路行包运量预测PLS回归模型。实证结果表明:所建立的预测模型精度基本符合实际要求。该模型已应用于铁路行包运输“十一五”发展规划编制工作中。
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| 关 键 词： | 铁路 行包运量 预测模型 研究 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-1421(2006)10-0080-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-03-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-06-20 |
Research on Railway Parcel Traffic Volume Forecast Model Based on PLS |
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| JIA Yu-quan,JI Chang-xu,JIA Li-min,Yang-xu.Research on Railway Parcel Traffic Volume Forecast Model Based on PLS[J].Rail Way Transport and Economy,2006,28(10):80-82. |
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| Authors: | JIA Yu-quan JI Chang-xu JIA Li-min Yang-xu |
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| Institution: | School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the modeling principle and calculation method of partial least-squares regression(PLS),the essay analyzes the factors influencing railway parcel traffic volume.The PLS forecast model of railway parcel traffic volume is established according to the relative statistic data of production and influencing factors in 2004.The result shows: the precision of established forecast model basically meets actual requirement.Such model had already been applied in the compiling of the "eleventh five-year" development plan of railway parcel transportation. |
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| Keywords: | PLS |
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