中国城镇化与经济增长关系的理论与实证研究

国际经验表明工业化和城镇化是带动一个国家或地区经济增长的双核。中国城镇化远远落后于工业化，可以作为新时期拉动经济增长的重要战略选择。理论层面，经济增长通过收入效应 、规模效应、结构效应推动城镇化进程；城镇化则通过投资拉动机制、消费刺激机制、产业优化机制、创新激励机制促进经济增长。实证层面，选取1978～2012年城镇化率和人均GDP 的时间序列数据，通过协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应和方差分解等计量分析发现， 我国城镇化和经济增长之间存在稳定长期的均衡关系；选取2008～2012年省际面板数据测算全国和东、中、西部省份城镇化水平的泰尔指数，结果显示中国城镇化的省际差异总体呈现缩小趋势。

National Debt Impact on Economic Growth under the Budget Deficit

This paper first reviews the specific issue of the national debt in 30 years to rest ore the evolution of debt practice,and in accordance with changes in the size an d the issuance of treasury bonds over the same period Chinas economic situatio n and policy development,the development of practice experience the national deb t is divided into five phases.On this basis,this paper analyzes of the bond issu ance,fiscal deficits,fiscal revenue relationship between the quantity and propor tion in detail.Then through the issuance of treasury bonds empirical analysis ex amines the impact on economic growth,and empirical results show that our long-te rm treasury bonds for economic growth has a positive pull effect.