制度质量与资本账户开放:基于中国的实证检验

本文运用最小二乘回归方法,对我国1976—2007年间的资本账户开放与制度质量以及金融发展等变量之间的关系进行了实证检验。结果显示,制度质量对资本账户开放的直接影响,以及通过作用于金融发展和金融脆弱性而产生的间接影响在我国是存在的。并且,无论是制度合成指标,还是制度分指标,对资本账户开放的直接效应都为负,间接效应都为正。此外,金融发展与资本账户开放之间显著负相关,表明金融发展水平不足、制度质量不高,是现阶段抑制我国资本账户开放的重要因素。因此,从提高资本账户开放的经济效应的角度,应强调相关制度的重要性。

An Empirical Analysis on the Institution's Quality and the Liberalization of Capital Account in China

This paper uses the time series data from 1978 to 2007 to analyze the correlation between capital account liberalization, institutional quality and financial development in China by employing the OLS. The results indicate that institutional quality has a direct effect and an indirect via affecting financial development and financial fragility on capital account liberalization. Moreover, whatever it is a synthetic indicator or sub-index of institutional quality, the direct effect is negative and the indirect...