中美两国间价格体系的动态传导机理

本文采用向量自回归模型和Granger因果关系检验,动态分析了中国与美国间价格体系的传导机理。结果表明:中美两国间的价格体系存在显著的动态传导关系;美国CPI和PPI波动对中国价格体系均具有较强的动态冲击,其中以PPI主导的正向传导特征明显,而CPI对中国价格体系的冲击路径则表现为差异性;中国CPI和PPI波动仅对美国PPI具有正向传导效应,但冲击影响的持续性明显较弱;与美国国内价格体系的传导特征不显著相比,中国国内价格体系在受到外部冲击时表现为明显的交互加强特征。因此,我国在政策制定过程中必须充分考虑外部价格冲击的影响,从而确保政策目标的顺利实现和经济的健康发展。

Dynamic Transmission Mechanism of the Price System Between China and USA

Using the Vector Auto-regression(VAR) Model and Granger Causality Test,this paper analyzes the dynamic transmission mechanism of the price system between China and USA.The outcome shows that: Firstly,the price system between China and USA has significant dynamic transmission relationships.Secondly,CPI and PPI fluctuations of USA have relative strong dynamic shocks on the price system of China.The positive transmission characters led by PPI are more obvious,while the CPI shock path on the price system of China shows differences.Thirdly,CPI and PPI fluctuations of China only have positive transmission effects on PPI of USA,but the continuance of shock influences is significantly weaken.Last but not least,compared with the price system of USA,the price system of China has obvious interact enforced characters when it is influenced by external shocks.Hence influences by external price shocks should be considered to guarantee the successful implement of policies and economy growth.