扩大内需下保障房的最优供给区间研究——基于财富效应的分析视角

本文通过引入保障房的因素,对跨期消费模型进行拓展,发现理论上存在保障房的最优供给区间,接着利用我国2000-2009年的省际面板数据,基于Hansen面板门槛模型进行实证分析,得出结论:能发挥财富效应,进而有助于扩大内需的保障房覆盖率的最优区间下限为9.37%,上限为19.22%。本文对区域进一步的分析发现,东部地区的大部分省份难以超越保障房最优供给区间的下限门槛,处于保障乏力的状态,而西部地区的大部分省份则恰好处于这个最优区间内。因此,除了对地方政府的保障房建设进行激励外,还应该创新保障房的投融资和建设模式,充分调动民间资本的积极性,这样才能跨越保障房供给的最低门槛。

Research on Optimal Public Housing Supply Range Under Domestic Demand Expansion -From the Perspective of Wealth Effect

Introducing public housing into an intertemporal consumption model,the paper finds the theoretical possibility of optimal public housing supply range.Based on Hansen panel threshold model,it uses China’s inter-provincial panel data from 2000 to 2009 and implements empirical analysis.Results show that the lower and upper limit of optimal public housing coverage range is 9.37% and 19.22% respecitively,in order to fulfill the wealth effect and thus help to expand domestic demand.Through further region analysis,the authors find that the supply of public housing for most provinces in eastern regions are difficult to go beyond the lower limit of optimal public housing supply range,showing lower ability of housing security,while that for most provinces in western region is exactly within the optimal range.Therefore,in addition to encouraging local government to implement public housing construction,innovative investment,financing and constructing pattern of public housing and enthusiasm of private capital are very useful ways to overpass the lower limit of optimal public housing supply range.