上网电价波动对中国火电发电量的影响——基于协整检验和误差修正模型的实证分析

2003年以来,中国电煤价格快速上涨,"市场煤"与"计划电"的矛盾冲突日益激烈。火电企业普遍选择"停机限发",进而引发全国范围内的"电荒"频频出现。本文基于协整检验和误差修正模型,利用2003-2010年的季度数据,研究了上网电价、供电煤耗等因素对火电产业发电量的影响。结果表明,上网电价是影响火电发电量的最重要因素,季度上网电价每提高1%,火电季度发电量就提高13.42%;即季度上网电价提高1分/千瓦时,火电季度发电量就约提高2416亿千瓦时;代表技术进步的供电煤耗每降低1%,火电季度发电量就增加0.767%;主营业务成本每提高1%,火电季度发电量就降低0.53%;而总资产则对火电发电量具有微小的负向影响。对此本文提出了适当小幅快频上调上网电价、深入推行节能降耗等政策建议。

Impact of Fluctuation of Electricity On-grid Price on Power Generation Capacity of Chinese Thermal Power Industry

Since 2003,coal prices in China has increased rapidly.Thermal power companies generally choose to "stop generating",triggering nationwide "electricity shortage".Based on cointegration and error correction model using quarterly data for 2003-2010,this thesis studies the impacts of electricity on-grid price,power coal consumption and other factors on thermal power productivity.The empirical results show that the electricity on-grid price is the most important factor.Thermal power productivity per quarter increases by 13.42% with 1% increase of electricity on-grid price per quarter.Coal consumption per quarter,on behalf of technological progress,reduces by 1%,thermal power productivity per quarter will increase by about 0.767%.Therefore,the government should slightly increase the electricity on-grid price and implement in-depth energy saving policies.