土地管制、市场价格与政策选择

本文从宏观和微观两个层面考察土地管制政策对市场价格的影响,利用35个大中城市的宏观数据,检验土地供给是否对住房价格产生影响,以及其影响程度与时间路径;利用杭州286宗住宅用地微观数据,量化微观管制政策对土地价格的影响方向与程度。我们发现土地供给对住房供给在长期内(1～2年)有显著影响,短期内(1年以内)没有影响;而土地供给对住房价格在长期与短期内都有影响,如通过改变预期影响当年住房价格,通过控制住房供给影响滞后1年的住房价格等。土地出让约束条款能够显著影响土地的出让价格,容积率每增加1%,会引起土地价格上升0.777%,出让地块面积增加1%会导致单位出让价格下降0.108%。进而,从宏观和微观两个层面提出政策建议,促进住房市场与价格保持稳定。

Land Regulations, Market Prices and Policies

The paper has done two-level empirical studies to examine the effect of land regulation.Firstly,using 35 metropolitans’ data,the authors design a panel data model to test effect of land supply on houses prices and houses supply.The results indicate that land supplies have influenced housing supplies in the long-term(1-2 years),rather than in the short-term(1 year).Land supplies have a one-year lag effect on housing prices.Secondly,using land sales’ data of Hangzhou city,the authors set up intervention model to test the impacts of binding constraints on land prices.The government interventions have a great impact on the sales price in residential land market.The empirical results indicated that a 1% increases in floor-area ratio will lead to a 0.777% increase in sales price per square meter;and a 1% increase in area will lead to a 0.108% decrease in sales price per square meter.Then,from macroscopic and microscopic dimensions,some policy suggestions have been given to stablize housing prices.