中美博弈对全球价值链的影响机理与重构效应

当前,虽然中美经贸摩擦暂时得到缓和,但中美博弈冲突并未在根本上得到解决,其对全球价值链的影响具有长期性。从出口层面看,贸易政策不确定性加剧,直接影响着企业的生产布局和出口选择,进而引发贸易转移效应;从进口层面看,两国间的关税措施抬高了进口成本,必将引发进口国企业和消费者的替代效应。未来国际经贸秩序的深度调整、大国间冲突与博弈的不断演化、国家间经贸关系不确定性加剧等因素,将进一步加速全球价值链的重构进程。具体表现为:全球生产链条缩短,区域性经贸合作加强;研发创新本土化、产业回流等因素将提升国家价值链的战略地位;全球价值链竞争的核心围绕高技术产业展开,中美博弈将表现为中美两种发展模式的对抗。

The influence mechanism and reconstruction effect of Sino-US game on global value chain

At present,although the economic and trade frictions between China and the United States have been temporarily eased,the game conflicts have not been fundamentally resolved,and the impact on global value chains has a long-term nature.From the perspective of export,the increasing uncertainty of trade policy directly affects the production layout and export choices of enterprises,which in turn triggers the effect of trade transfer.From the perspective of import,the tariff measures between Sino-US have raised the cost of imports,which will surely trigger a substitution effect for enterprises and consumers in the importing country.In the future,the indepth adjustment of the international economic and trade order,the continuous evolution of conflicts and games between major countries,and the increasing uncertainty of economic and trade relations between countries will further accelerate the process of restructuring the global value chain.The specific performance is as follows:the global production chain is shortened and regional economic and trade cooperation is strengthened;factors such as the localization of R&D innovation and industrial return will enhance the strategic position of the national value chain;the core of the global value chain competition is centered on high-tech industries,and the Sino-US game will be shown as the confrontation between the two development models of China and the United States.