“一带一路”背景下中国与欧亚经济联盟贸易效率及贸易潜力研究

以中国对EEU成员国出口贸易为视角,运用SFGM模型,选取2009—2018年的中国与欧亚经济联盟的数据对贸易效率及贸易潜力进行了测度。研究结果表明,欧亚经济联盟各成员国的经济规模、双边政府廉洁、贸易自由度、物流绩效、OFDI、共同边界等对中国出口具有显著的促进作用,通货膨胀也对出口起到促进作用,但作用不显著。双边的地理距离、是否内陆国、关税税率、汇率等对中国出口欧亚经济联盟具有明显的抑制作用,汇率也具有抑制作用,但不显著。根据研究结论提出针对性的政策建议,即加强双边合作,提升清关效率,完善基础设施质量,便利贸易和运输效率,提高物流服务质量;进一步降低关税和非关税壁垒,提高商品运输的效率,清除双方隐性贸易壁垒;加强政府对金融机构的监管力度,加大信贷资金配置规模;积极推动中国与EEU成员国建立自贸区;实现双边资本、信息等资源的共享,从而提高贸易效率,减少贸易阻力。最终着眼于命运共同体及全球价值链视域,推动双边贸易发展。

Research on trade efficiency and trade potential between China and Eurasian Economic Union under the background of the Belt and Road

From the perspective of China’s export trade with EEU members, this paper used SFGM model to measure the trade efficiency and trade potential of China and Eurasian Economic Union from 2009 to 2018. The results show that the economic scale, bilateral government integrity, trade freedom, logistics performance, OFDI and common border of the member countries of Eurasian Economic Union can significantly promote China’s export, while inflation also plays a role in promoting export, but the effect is not significant. Bilateral geographical distance, whether the country is a landlocked one or not, tariff rate and exchange rate have obvious inhibitory effect on China’s export to Eurasian Economic Union, and the exchange rate also has inhibitory effect, but not significant. According to the research conclusions, we have put forward targeted policy recommendations,namely, strengthening bilateral cooperation, improving the efficiency of customs clearance, promoting the quality of infrastructure, facilitating trade and transportation efficiency, enhancing the quality of logistics services, further reducing the tariff and non-tariff barriers, improving the efficiency of commodity transportation and removing the hidden trade barriers between the two sides, strengthening the government’s supervision on financial institutions and increasing the scale of credit fund allocation, actively promoting the establishment of a free trade zone between China and EEU member states, realizing the sharing of resources such as capital and information between the two sides, so as to improve trade efficiency and reduce trade resistance. Finally, we should focus on the community with a shared future and global value chain to promote the development of bilateral trade.