The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions |
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| Authors: | Rubn Hernndez-Murillo Michael T Owyang |
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| Institution: | Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, P.O. Box 422, St. Louis, MO 63166, United States |
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| Abstract: | We consider whether disaggregated data enhance the efficiency of aggregate employment forecasts. We find that incorporating spatial interaction into a disaggregated forecasting model lowers the out-of-sample mean squared error from a univariate aggregate model by 70% at a two-year horizon. |
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| Keywords: | Forecasting Aggregation Spatial econometrics |
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