我国主要城市房地产发展潜力评价

综合考虑宏观经济、人口、房地产市场等相关因素，利用因子分析法，评价分析主要城市群内187个地级以上城市的房地产发展潜力。结果表明，发展潜力前30名，以直辖市、中东部省会城市及沿海发达城市等一二线城市为主。三线城市中东营、淄博、日照、盘锦、扬州等城市，经济支撑强，房地产市场较为活跃，供给相对不足，房地产市场发展潜力相对较大。有些城市如营口、贵阳、铁岭、北海、邯郸、保定等，房地产供给严重过剩，经济支撑能力又较弱，房地产市场风险较大。中央政府不应再采取“一刀切”的房地产调控政策，应根据城市实际情况分类调控。

Analysis of China Cities Real Estate Development Potential

The paper considering the factors related to the macro economic, population, the real estate market situation, uses factor analysis, analyzes the real estate development potential of main urban agglomeration 187 cities. The results show that, the development potential of the top 30, are municipality directly under the central government, provincial capital cities and the east coastal developed cities. The three line of the cities of Dongying, Zibo, Rizhao, Panjin, Yangzhou, the economic support is strong, the real estate market more active, insufficient supply, the development potential of the real estate market is relatively large. Some cities such as Yingkou, Guiyang, Tieling, Beihai, the real estate oversupply, economic weak, hide the market risk of real estate. The central government should implement different control policies according to the actual situation in the cities.