并购中主并公司的可预测性——基于交易成本视角的研究

本文将交易成本划分为显性交易成本和隐性交易成本,认为主并公司进行并购的目的是为了节约显性和隐性交易成本。在此基础上,我们以2003年发生并购的上市公司为样本,采用因子分析法和Logistic回归建立了主并公司的预测模型,发现资产专用性越强,显性交易成本越高,公司发生并购的可能性越大;中间产品市场的不确定性越高,显性交易成本越高,公司发生并购的可能性越大;公司的成长能力越强,成长能力与盈利能力之间的不平衡程度越高,隐性交易成本越高,公司发生并购的可能性越大。

The Predictability of Acquiring Companies in M&A:Based on the Perspective of Transaction Cost

This paper divides the transaction cost into explicit transaction cost and implicit transaction cost,and argues that the motivation of M&A is to save explicit transaction cost and implicit transaction cost.According to this argument,we set up a forecasting model of acquiring companies based on the M&A data of Chinese listed companies in 2003,using factor analysis and logistic model.We find out that the higher the asset specificity is,the more explicit transaction cost is and the more the probability of M&A is;the more the uncertainty of markets of intermediate goods is,the more explicit transaction cost is and the more the probability of M&A is;the higher growth capability is,the higher the unbalance between growth capability and profitability is,the more implicit transaction cost is and the more the probability of M&A is.