Trends in international business thought and literature: One country,two currencies? Hong Kong's exchange-rate regime after 1997

A key factor in assessing the future of the Hong Kong dollar is whether China would, after 1997, take the drastic step of abolishing the Hong Kong dollar in favor of the Renminbi (RMB) as legal tender. While this possibility should not be discounted, our view is that a merger of the two currencies would only occur in the distant future when the RMB becomes fully convertible. This study argues that the status quo of the HK$-US$ link would be preserved at least until the turn of the century. A combination of factors, including the overriding need to maintain confidence and stability in Hong Kong, which is crucial for a smooth transition of sovereignty; the weak relationship between either imported or domestic-generated inflation and the exchange rate link; and the misconception that Hong Kong's export competitiveness has been undermined by an overvalued Hong Kong dollar would help to support the argument that other alternative regimes for the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate would not be feasible in the short run. These alternative regimes include changing to a floating rate