人口城市化与经济增长、产业结构间的动态关系——以江苏省为例

基于已有的研究理论和经验,采用VAR模型对江苏1980-2010年间人口城市化、经济增长及产业结构之间的关系进行了研究。实证结果表明:江苏的人口城市化与经济增长、产业升级间有长期的累积循环效应,但效应较弱;人口城市化有力地促进了经济增长,而经济增长对城市化的提携作用较小;经济增长能带来产业结构的明显提升,但产业结构优化对经济增长的影响是波动和滞后的;人口城市化与产业结构的互动性很弱,甚至两不相干。

Dynamic relation between population urbanization with economic growth and industrial structure: taking Jiangsu Province for example

Based on the present empirical and theoretical researches,this article studies by VAR model the relation among economic growth,industrial structure and urbanization of Jiangsu Province from 1980 to 2010.The results show that: there is a long-term accumulative effect of cyclic among the three,however the relationship is weak;economic growth exerts a slender impact on urbanization;on the contrary,urbanization has boosted economic growth greatly;economic growth has a significant impetus on the industrial structure upgrading,and the industrial structure exerts a fluctuant and lagging effect on economic growth;the interrelation is quite faint between urbanization and industrial structure,and the mechanisms between the two should be further improved and integrated.