京津冀地区能源消费、碳排放与经济增长关系实证研究

本文分别利用LYQ脱钩模型和Granger因果关系检验模型，选取了京津冀地区1995～2014年能源消费、碳排放与经济增长数据进行实证分析。通过脱钩模型及其分解得出，京津冀地区碳排放与经济增长以弱脱钩状态为主，原因在于能源利用率的提高导致节能弹性不断下降；通过Granger因果检验得出，京津冀地区能源消费与碳排放存在双向因果关系，但经济增长与能源消费、经济增长与碳排放存在单向因果关系，表明京津冀地区实施节能减排措施不会导致经济的下滑。未来京津冀地区要继续实施节能减排政策，推动产业结构优化升级，进一步提升能源效率，重点关注能源消费结构的改善，提高新型低碳能源的比重。

The Empirical Study on the Relationship Between Energy Consumption,Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

By using LYQ decoupling analysis model and Granger causality test model,this paper selects energy consumption,carbon emissions and economic growth in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei from 1995 to 2014 to make empirical study.According to the LYQ decoupling analysis,the improvement of energy efficiency lead to energy conservation elastic is falling so that Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei's carbon emission and economic growth remain weak decoupling mainly.According to the Granger causality test analysis,the energy consumption and economic growth exist bidirectional causality.But there are only unidirectional causation from economic growth to energy consumption,from economic growth to carbon emission,which means energy conservation and emissions reduction will not lead the economy down.In the future,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei should unswervingly implement energy-saving and emission reduction policies,upgrade industrial structure to further improve energy efficiency,especially pay attention to the improvement of the energy consumption structure,and increasethe proportion of renewable energy and low-carbon energy.