Applications of general equilibrium models to the 1986 tax reform act in the United States

Summary This paper examines the structure and predictions of six applied general equilibrium models used to evaluate the 1986 Tax Reform Act in the United States. The models agree that the effects on national income will be fairly small. They disagree on the size of the improvement in economic efficiency from more neutral taxation of different capital assets, and on the size of the intertemporal inefficiency when capital formation is discouraged through a higher rate of taxation. This new application of general equilibrium models to an actual reform highlights the need to test predictions against empirical evidence.The views expressed are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston or the Federal Reserve System. The author is grateful to J. von Sinderen, Laus Bovenberg, Lawrence Goulder, and other participants at the conference for their helpful comments, and to the authors of the studies reviewed in this paper for instructive discussions.Prepared for The Netherlands Central Planning Bureau Symposium on Applied General Equilibrium Models, Noordwijk, December 4–5, 1989.