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Regional output growth in the United Kingdom: More timely and higher frequency estimates from 1970 |
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| Authors: | Gary Koop Stuart McIntyre James Mitchell Aubrey Poon |
| Institution: | 1. Fraser of Allander Institute, Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK
Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence, London, UK;2. Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence, London, UK |
| Abstract: | Output growth estimates for regions of the UK are currently published at an annual frequency only, released with a long delay, and offer limited historical coverage. To improve the regional database this paper develops a mixed-frequency multivariate model and uses it to produce consistent estimates of quarterly regional output growth dating back to 1970. We describe how these estimates are updated and evaluated on an ongoing, quarterly basis to publish online (at www.escoe.ac.uk/regionalnowcasting ) more timely regional growth estimates. We illustrate how the new quarterly data can contribute to our historical understanding of business cycle dynamics and connectedness between regions. |
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