长三角地区经济增长的空间溢出效应——基于长三角16个城市的空间计量分析

在新经济地理理论的基础上,通过对长三角16个城市2000~2011年的Moran’sI指数进行计算和分析,发现长三角16个城市的经济增长之间存在正的空间相关性,并且在时间维度上表现出逐渐增强的变化趋势。用市场潜能作为反映空间溢出效应的指标,通过空间误差模型对长三角地区经济增长的空间溢出效应进行计量分析。结果表明,市场潜能对长三角地区的经济增长产生显著的正向影响,并且这种正向影响与空间距离呈现反相关的关系,空间溢出效应已经成为长三角地区经济增长的重要推动力。在此基础上得出的启示是:长三角地区未来的经济增长可以把空间溢出效应作为一个重要的着力点。

Spatial Spillover Effects of Economic Growth in Yangtze River Delta Region:Spatial Econometric Analysis Based on 16 Cities in the Yangtze River Delta Region

Based on the new economic geography theory, by calculation and analysis of the Moran＇s I index of 16 cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2011, the paper found a positive space correlation among the economic growth of 16 cities in the Yangtze River Delta, and the correlation in the time dimension showed the trend of gradual increase. In this paper, using the market potential as indicators that reflect the spatial spillover effects, Econometric analysis of spatial spillover effects of economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta Region was then conducted through the spatial error model. The results showed that the market potential for economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta region had a significant positive effect, and this positive effect on the spatial distance presented a negative correlation relationship. Spatial spillover effects of economic growth has become an important driving force of the Yangtze River Delta region. This gives us a revelation that spatial spillover effects can serve the Yangtze River Delta region＇s future economic growth as an important focal point.