中国城市土地供给错配：特征事实及对 全要素生产率的影响效应

研究目的：探究城市土地供给错配的典型特征，明晰城市土地供给错配对全要素生产率的影响，为提升土地配置效率和全要素生产率提供经验证据。研究方法：从土地供给过度与供给不足视角解析城市土地错配对全要素生产率的影响机制，通过空间一般均衡模型构建城市土地供给错配指数，利用面板计量模型和中介效应模型进行实证分析及中介效应检验。研究结果：（1）中国城市土地供给错配表现出明显的差异性：不同地区、城市规模、人口流动方向分别呈现出“东少西多”“阶梯递减”“逆向配置”特征。（2）城市土地供给错配对全要素生产率产生负向影响，影响效应在不同类型城市存在异质性，城市土地供给过度对全要素生产率的负向作用强于土地供给不足。（3）城市土地供给过度通过创新创业发展和产业结构优化双重路径显著抑制了城市全要素生产率，土地供给不足主要通过产业结构优化对城市效率产生显著的负向影响。研究结论：应警惕土地配置过度的“经济效率”陷阱，强化建设用地指标分配的人地挂钩机制，因城施策提升土地资源配置效率。

Urban Land Supply Misallocation in China: Characteristic Facts and Impacts on Total Factor Productivity

The purposes of this paper are to analyze the typical characteristics of urban land supply misallocation and to clarify the impacts on total factor productivity from the dual perspectives of oversupply and undersupply, to provide empirical evidence to improve the efficiency of land allocation and total factor productivity. The methods used are as follows. First, the spatial general equilibrium model is used to construct the urban land supply misallocation index. Second, the econometric panel model and the mediating effect model are used to conduct the empirical analysis. The results show that: 1) the misallocation of urban land supply in China exhibits significant differences among cities. In particular, the urban land supply misallocation index is characterized by an increasing trend from the eastern to the western China, a gradually decreasing trend from small to large cities and a reverse configuration trend from the direction of population flow. 2) The misallocation of urban land supply has a negative impact on total factor productivity, which also varies from region, city size and type of population immigration. Relatively speaking, the oversupply of urban land has a stronger negative effect on total factor productivity than the undersupply of urban land. 3) The oversupply of urban land inhibits total factor productivity in two ways, by hindering both the development of innovative industries and the optimization of the industrial structure, while the undersupply of urban land only hinders the optimization of industrial structure. In conclusion, it is necessary to guard against the economic efficiency trap of excessive land allocation, strengthen the human-land linkage mechanism in land supply, and implement city-specific policies to improve the allocation efficiency of land resources.