技术创新、间断平衡和经济长波

令人信服的长波技术原因论不仅需要证明技术创新(速度)决定投资(速度)进而决定经济长波,还需要证明创新本身为何以集群方式周期性出现.通过间断平衡理论的生物学隐喻研究方法,从技术路径依赖、重大技术突破的联动效应和宏观环境的积极作用角度阐述了技术创新集群性和周期性的原因,具有一定的理论解释力和说服力,也为后续研究提供了一个有益的思路和视角.

Technology Innovation, Punctuated Equilibria and Long Wave Cycle

If technology is the determinant of long wave cycle of economy,not only it is necessary to prove that technology innovations determine the investment and then determine the long wave cycle,but also it is necessary to show why technology innovations always emerge multitudinously and periodicity.Through the metaphoric methodology from punctuated equilibria theory,this paper has study the path dependence of technology,the impact of radical innovation and the effect of macro-environments as the causations,which is significant in some part,and it will also provide an instructive angle for succeeding study.