BP神经网络在项目投资风险分析中的应用

影响项目投资经济效益评价指标的参数很多,这些参数均具有一定的不确定性.由于各参数的不确定性,其项目投资经济效益评价指标值也是不确定的,因此,对投资项目所做的经济效益评价结论必将带有风险.在经济评价工作中,应当对这种风险作出合理的量化分析和估算,以了解项目的风险承受能力,并尽可能采取措施回避风险.本文共搜集了10个相似投资项目,根据BP神经网络工作原理筛选确定了6个影响和制约项目投资因素的指标作为神经网络的输入变量,并提出了基于BP神经网络的项目投资风险分析模型;其中7个投资项目作为训练样本,2个作为检测实例,最后一个进行敏感性分析.经过测算,其精度完全可以满足实际项目投资风险分析的需要.因此,神经网络在这方面有很好的应用前景.

The Application of BP Neural Network in The Risk Analysis of Project Investment

There are many parameters which affect the economic benefit indicators for evaluation and they are all uncertain.Because of the parameters' uncertainty,evaluation indicators values of economic benifit in project investment are also uncertain.Therefor,the conclusion of economic benefit evaluation to investment project will have a risk.In the economic evaluation,we should make a reasonable quantification and estamation of risk analysis in order to know the project's ability to stand the risks.In this paper we collect ten similar investment projects.According to the operation principle of BP neural network,we choose six indicators which affecting and restricting investment factors as input variables of neural network,and propose the project investment risk analysis model based on BP neural network.Nine investment projects work as training samples and two work as test examples.After calculated,it proved that the precision satisfies completely the need of economical efficiency sensibility analysis so that neural network will have a prosperous prospect in this aspect.