Adjustment policies in developing countries: A reassessment

This paper analyses policy responses to external shocks by developing countries in the 1974–1976 and 1979–1981 periods. It is shown that outward-oriented economies relied largely on output-increasing policies of export promotion and import substitution to offset the balance-of-payments effects of external shocks in both periods and accepted a temporary decline in the rate of economic growth in order to limit their external indebtedness. In turn, inward-oriented economies failed to apply output-increasing policies of adjustment. They financed the balance-of-payments effects of external shocks by foreign borrowing in the 1974–1976 period, and had to take deflationary measures in 1979–1981 as their increased indebtedness limited the possibilities for further borrowing. The policies applied led to substantially higher rates of economic growth in outward-oriented than in inward-oriented economies, with the differences in growth rates offsetting the differences in the size of external shocks several times.