中国森林碳汇定价研究

森林作为陆地上最大的碳库,其碳汇能力俨然成为各国应对全球气候变化不利影响的主要措施,如何准确地估算森林碳汇价格对于森林碳交易市场的完善以及森林碳汇能力的发挥具有重大意义。基于中国1990—2018年林业发展的相关数据,利用超越对数生产函数模型,通过自相关检验与多重共线性检验并结合岭回归分析方法推导出森林碳汇价格的核算方程,运用此价格核算方程估算了中国1990—2018年的森林碳汇价格。研究发现:中国1990年的森林碳汇价格为8.422元,而到了2018年其价格已经上涨到387.282元,年均增长率为14.56%,年均价格为120.294元。森林碳汇价格总体上随着时间以及投入要素的变化呈现出不断上涨的趋势,但也存在一定的波动。

Research on the pricing of forest carbon sinks in China

As the largest carbon pool on land, carbon sink capacity has become the main measure for countries to deal with the adverse effects of global climate change. How to accurately estimate the price of forest carbon sinks is of great significance for the improvement of forest carbon trading market and the exertion of forest carbon sinks capacity. Based on the relevant data of China’s forestry development from 1990 to 2018, this paper used the trans-log production function model, derived the accounting equation of the price of forest carbon sinks through autocorrelation test, multicollinearity test and ridge regression analysis, and used this price accounting equation to estimate the price of forest carbon sinks in China from 1990 to 2018. The study found that the price of forest carbon sinks in China was 8.422 yuan in 1990, but by 2018, the price had increased to 387.282 yuan,with an average annual growth rate of 14.56% and an average annual price of 120.294 yuan. The price of forest carbon sinks generally shows a growing trend with the change of time and input factors, but there are also some fluctuations.