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Valuing Climate Change Effects Upon UK Agricultural GHG Emissions: Spatial Analysis of a Regulating Ecosystem Service |
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| Authors: | David J Abson Mette Termansen Unai Pascual Uzma Aslam Carlo Fezzi Ian Bateman |
| Affiliation: | 1. FuturES Research Center, Leuphana Universit?t, 21355, Lüneburg, Germany 2. Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000, Roskilde, Aarhus, Denmark 3. Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB39EP, UK 4. Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3), Alameda Urquijo, 4-4, 48008, Bilbao, Basque Country 5. Ikerbasque Basque Foundation for Science, Alameda Urquijo, 36-5, 48011, Bilbao, Basque Country 6. School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK 7. Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment (CSERGE), School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK |
| Abstract: | This article provides estimates of the physical and economic value of changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions projected to arise from climate change induced shifts in UK agricultural land use during the period 2004–2060. In physical terms, significant regional differences are predicted with the intensity of agricultural GHG emissions increasing in the upland north and western parts of the UK and decreasing in the lowland south and east of the country. Overall these imply relative modest increases in the physical quantity of emissions. However, rapid rises in the expected marginal value of such emissions translate these trends into major increases in their economic costs over the period considered. |
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