我国总产出的动态特征研究--基于最小拉格朗日乘数单位根检验的实证分析

本文采用最新的结构断点最小拉格朗日乘数单位根检验，对我国1952～2004年间总产出的动态特征进行了研究，结果发现所有总量都是围绕着一个或两个结构断点的分段趋势平稳的。总产出服从分段趋势平稳过程的结论，对宏观经济运行预测、政策主导下的长期经济发展战略和短期经济稳定措施是否有效，以及总产出与其他总量间因果关系的研究具有重要启示。

The Stationarity of Chinese Outputs: Evidence from Minimum LM Unit-root Testing

This paper applies minimum multiple LM unit-root testing to Chi- nese output over the period of 1952-2004. It is found that all series can be more accurately characterized as a segmented-trend-stationary process around one or two structural breaks as opposed to a stochastic unit root process with breaks. The conclusions have important implications for policy-makers to formulate economic forecasts, long-term growth strategy and short-run stabilization policies as well as causality analysis among series.