Estimates of real economic activity in Switzerland, 1886–1930

This paper uses annual data spanning 1870 to 1930 on a set of variables correlated with business conditions to construct an index of real economic activity in Switzerland. We extract an estimate of the common component of the data series using principal components analysis and the unobservable variables approach proposed by Stock and Watson (1989, 1991). The resulting index is similar to that constructed by Andrist et al. (2000) but displays more variation over time and is available for a longer time period. Moreover, it is less volatile and covers a longer time period in the 20th century than the estimate by Ritzmann-Blickenstorfer (1996).First version received: May 2002/Final version received: September 2004The views expressed in this paper are solely our own and are not necessarily shared by the institutions we are affiliated with. We thank the Editor and the anonymous referees for helpful comments (in particular for finding serious errors in the principal components analysis), and Jim Stock and Mark Watson for detailed explanations of their estimation strategy.