中国经济长期增长的困境与前景

从长时段进行分析，最近30多年，中国在全球化背景下的持续经济增长已可以称之为“奇迹”。从未来发展来看，中国经济增长面临着创新不足的“熊彼特困境”与有效需求不足的“凯恩斯困境”。但在城市化、基础设施投资、区域梯度开发效应、价值链提升等动力的推动下，在未来的5—10年里，中国经济仍会保持持续增长．

Long-run Growth of China's Economy: Dilemma and Prospect

From analysis of the long periods of history, background has been called ＂miracle＂, which is driven the continual growth of China＇s economy in globalizing by such power as continual reform, large-scale infrastructure, and fast export growth in the last 30 years. In future, China＇s economic growth is facing shortage of innovation, called ＂Schumpeter Dilemma＂ and lack of effective demand, called ＂Keynes Dilemma＂. The analysis shows that China＇s economy will keep continual growth in the future 5-10 years, driven by such propulsion as urbanization, investment on infrastructure, effect of development of regional gradient, enhancement of the value chain and so on.