Rural Futures: Alternative Scenarios for French Rural Society to 2020

The foresight approach presented in this article is a contribution to a work programme set up by the French land planning agency (DATAR) on the theme'Land planning for the France of 2020'. The future of rural space is a matter of concern because of the rapid economic polarization movement towards the metropolis and surroundings, observed over the last three decades. This movement threatens the viability of rural space. The foresight study is based on scenario building. Rural space is seen as a system that ensures various functions: residence, production, nature. Each function and the global context are considered as subsystems driven by a set of key variables. Combining the various modalities of any subsystem variables allows us to build partial scenarios. In turn, these partial scenarios are combined to design four global scenarios describing the possible futures of the French rural space:'a generalized residential countryside', characterized by a marked increase in urban spread; 'sustainable towns and large farms', where rural areas are organized according to the interest of farmers;'towards the nature countryside', a breaking scenario where the priority is to meet environmental challenges; and'active and competitive rural areas', emphasizing the role of local productive systems. Policy makers have many choices and can shape the countryside's picture in the next decade.