The anticipated real interest rate,capital utilization and the cyclical pattern of real wages

This paper develops a channel through which increases in anticipated real interest rates can be ‘expansionary’ for current aggregate labor demand and current output supply. The key feature of the model is the introduction of a user cost of capital utilization which confronts the firm with the intertemporal problem of the optimal choices of capital utilization and depreciation. The resulting variation in capital utilization and capital services in response to fluctuations in the real rate of interest shifts the marginal product of labor and, thus, the demand for labor at the same time and in the same direction that Lucas-Rapping real interest rate effects operate on labor supply. The complete model places no a priori restrictions on the cyclical pattern of real wages, thus avoiding the countercyclical real wage prediction made by Keynes and various classical writers that is rejected by the data. Estimates of a labor demand schedule for the annual U.S. data reveal a significantly positive real interest rate effect.