产业转移能促进地区产业结构优化升级吗？——基于承接产业转移示范区的事实检验

利用275个地级市2004—2018年的数据通过双重差分法分析国家级承接产业转移示范区对所在地产业结构的影响。结果表明：示范区的成立会对所在地的产业结构高级化和产业结构合理化产生显著的抑制作用；在一段时间后，示范区对产业结构合理化的影响会由负效应转变为正效应，对产业结构高级化的负面影响也会变得不再显著；示范区位于不同地区、高新区、政府规模都会使示范区对地区产业结构产生不同的影响。据此提出对示范区建设的几点建议。

Can Industrial Transfer Promote the Optimization and Upgrading of Regional Industrial Structure? Based on the fact test of undertaking industrial transfer demonstration zone

Using the data of 275 prefecture level cities from 2004 to 2018, the impact was analyzed of the national demonstration zone undertaking industrial transfer on the local industrial structure through the double difference method. The results show that the establishment of the demonstration zone will significantly inhibit the upgrading and rationalization of industrial structure. After a period of time, the impact of the demonstration zone on the rationalization of industrial structure will change from negative effect to positive effect, and the negative impact on the upgrading of industrial structure will no longer be significant.The demonstration zone is located in different regions, high-tech zones and government scale will have different effects on the regional industrial structure. Some suggestions on the construction of demonstration area are put forward.