我国沿海地区旅游经济预警评价时空差异研究

文章运用综合模拟法，构建由旅游经济规模、旅游经济结构、旅游经济效益和旅游经济承载力四个层次26个指标组成的预警评价模型，从时空角度比较分析我国沿海地区2000-2011年旅游经济预警综合指数的区域差异。结果表明，沿海地区旅游经济预警综合指数处于中警区（2000-2008）和重警区（2009-2011），特别是旅游经济规模从2007年开始进入重警区，表明规模数量型发展方式阻碍旅游经济可持续发展。空间布局方面，我国沿海11个省、市、自治区旅游经济发展状况总体呈现正常发展态势，除上海以外，均处于中警区。沿海地区应根据自身旅游经济发展速度和预警状态合理制定发展战略，注重旅游经济发展质量，促进旅游经济可持续发展。

The Spatial and Temporal Differences of Tourism Economic Early Warning Evaluation in Coastal Areas in China

Based on the method of comprehensive simulation, this paper built the early warning evaluation index system of tourism economy composed of four aspects and 26 indicators including the scale, structure, benefits and carrying capacity. Taking China’s coastal areas as the research unit, the year of 2000 to 2011 as the research time, this paper comparatively analyzed the regional differences of the tourism economic early warning composite index from the space-time point. The results showed that the warning composite index of tourism economy in coastal areas experienced the moderate warning area (2000-2008) and the serious warning area (2009-2011). Especially, the tourism economy scale entered the serious area from 2007 year on, indicating that the scale quantity type of development would inhibit the sustainable development of tourism economy. From the spatial point, the overall tourism economic development in China’s 11 coastal areas showed normal development trend, and belonged to the moderate warning area in addition to Shanghai. The coastal areas should formulate reasonable development strategy according to its own tourism economic development speed and warning condition, and focus on the quality of the tourism economic development, in order to promote the sustainable development of the tourism economy.