城市生态可持续发展水平评价及预测——以广州市为例

城市是一个自然一经济一社会复合生态系统，系统功能的高效与系统关系的协调是城市的总追求目标，“生态可持续发展水平”可以较好的衡量这一目标值的实现程度。本文通过建立生态可持续发展水平的指标体系，应用统计分析的方法对广州市的近几年的生态可持续发展水平进行分析和评价，并结合评价因子的标准值进行对比分析，最后得出广州市各年的生态可持续发展水平以及广州市可持续发展水平的预测模型。

Evaluation and Prediction on the Ecological Sustainable Development Level of Guangzhou City

Based on the urban-economy-society complex ecosystem theory, this paper set up the indicator system of urban ecological development level, apply the method of statistical analysis to analyzes the ecological sustainable development level in recent years. By comparing with the standard value of factors, tthe author make up the conclusion about the ecological sustainable development level of Guangzhou and give the prediction model.