基于能量分析的农业生态可持续发展指数方法研究

目的]农业可持续发展的研究首先面临的一个问题是如何对其进行有效评价,农业可持续发展评价一般采用多指标评价法,然而过多的指标给实际操作带来很多困难。文章从可持续发展评价理论创新和方法创新的需求出发,寻求建立一个简便易行的综合性指标——农业可持续发展指数(ASDI),以提高农业可持续发展评价的有效应和准确性。方法]该文基于能量投入产出方法,利用Logistic曲线构建了ASDI,并以贵州省印江县为实证研究案例,对其农业生态的可持续性行进行评价分析。结果]通过研究发现印江县的ASDI具有很大波动性,由于2002~2007年农业投入增加,印江县的ASDI呈现下降趋势,其中2007年因为投入过多而出现了负效应指数。结论](1)利用一个简单的综合指标来评价农业可持续发展在理论和实践上是可行的;(2)ASDI作为农业可持续发展的研究,或将为生态安全预警提供了一个可供参考的指标。

STUDY ON AGRICULTURE ECOLOGICAL SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT INDEX BASED ON ENERGY ANALYSIS

It is important to measure the agricultural sustainable development (ASD) using a group of indicators, which were complex and difficult in the practical application.The paper established a simple and comprehensive index-the agricultural sustainable development index (ASDI), for improving the validity and reliability of ASD measurement in a simple and practical way. Based on the energy input and output theory, the ASDI was constructed based on the Logistic curve. Taking Yinjiang county in Guizhou province as a case study, the agriculture sustainable situation of Yinjiang county was measured with the ASDI. It found that the ASDI in Yinjiang fluctuates dramatically showed a downward trend in 2002~2007 due to the increasing input in agriculture, and the negative effect appeared in 2007 due to the excessive input in that year. It concluded that (1) using a simple comprehensive index to measure the ASD was theoretically and practically feasible, (2) ASDI can provide a measure indicator for ecological security warning.