Impact of Climate Change and International Prices Uncertainty on the Sudanese Sorghum Market: A Stochastic Approach

This paper simulates the possible sorghum price change and the related probability of occurrence under different rainfall scenarios and in a context of price uncertainty in international markets. The empirical investigation is based on the stochastic approach. Results indicate an expected increase in sorghum price due to a high level of uncertainty in precipitation and in international market price, the most change likely produced by the latter, and the need to alter the agricultural view of policy making to include a market perspective.