城市化与能源消耗间关系实证研究

通过利用2000—2009年我国的省级面板数据,建立时间和空间双固定效应的面板空间杜宾模型,发现我国存在一条U形的城市化能耗库兹涅茨曲线,该曲线的转折点出现在城市化率约为24%的阶段。现阶段我国的城市化水平已经处在该曲线的右侧部分,表明如果我国的城市化率在今后仍不断提高的话,由城市化所导致的能耗将迅速增长。同时还发现城市化在我国能耗增长中的贡献比重较大,但对于在2003年出现的我国能耗迅速增加的拐点,从城市化的角度找不到解释。最后提出如果今后我国城市化率进一步提高,由能耗迅速增加所导致的城市发展的离心力达到一定程度,将会对我国的城市化格局产生重要的影响。

Empirical study on the relation between urbanization and energy consumption

Based on the provincial level panel data from 2000 to 2009,this article finds that there exists an energy Kuznets curve influenced by Kuznets curve by manipulating the two way fixed effects spatial panel Durbin model.The turning point of this curve appears when the urbanization rate reaches 24%,and the urbanization rate now locates on the right side of this point meaning that the energy use in China will surf fast if urbanization rate keeps rising in the coming years.The article also finds that urbanization contributes a great proportion to the energy consumption,but not for the soaring of energy use in 2003.If urbanization paces forward,the cost of high energy consumption will promote the reconstruction of cities.