产业结构优化与就业增长

中国第三产业总产值占GDP的比重与就业总量之间存在显著的正相关关系;相反,第二产业总产值占GDP的比重与就业总量之间呈显著负相关关系。通过放松行业管制来大力发展第三产业和通过劳动力职业培训实现劳动力在产业间的顺利转换是提高就业水平的两条重要途径。产业结构与就业总量之间的关系还存在明显的地区差异。在发达地区,二者之间的关系与全样本回归所得结论是一致的;而在欠发达地区,产业结构对就业并没有显著影响,但人均受教育年限和人口年龄结构与就业总量之间都是显著正相关的,因此,在欠发达地区,提高人口素质和优化人口年龄结构比产业结构调整更有利于促进就业增长。GDP的就业弹性系数显著为正,保持较高的经济增长速度也是促进就业的重要手段。

Optimization of Industrial Structure and Employment Growth

There exists a significant positive correlation between the proportion of China’s tertiary industry in GDP and the gross employment;on the contrary,the share of secondary industry in GDP is correlated negatively with the gross employment.Therefore,to prompt the development of tertiary industry by loosening the regulations of industries and to let the labors switch smoothly between the industries through professional training are two important ways to improve the level of employment.Furthermore,the relationships between industrial structure and employment are different at different regions.In the developed regions,the relationship between the two is the same as that resulted from the regression of the full sample;while in the less developed regions,the industrial structure has no significant effect on employment,but both the average years of education and the population age structure are correlated positively with employment.Therefore,to improve the quality of labors and to optimize the age structure are more important than to adjust industrial structure in promoting the growth of employment in the less developed regions.In addition,the elasticity of employment with respect to GDP is significantly positive,so to keep a high speed of GDP growth also plays a key role in boosting China’s employment.