| 中国人口转变与经济增长的实证分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵进文.中国人口转变与经济增长的实证分析[J].经济学(季刊),2004(3):819-838. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵进文 |
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| 作者单位： | 东北财经大学统计系 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金项目“复杂数据的统计诊断方法及其应用”资助(批准号:02BTJ002) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文从现代协整理论出发,研究了中国人口转变、实际工资与实际产出之间的长期动态均衡关系及信忠传导机制。结果表明:在出生率、婴儿死亡率、实际人均工资、实际 GDP 之间,至少存在单向的 Granger 因果关系;对数序列均为非平稳Ⅰ(1)序列。长期来看,死亡率的降低将导致出生率的降低。此外,还证明了出生率与死亡率均为经济系统的内生变量。
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| 关 键 词： | 人口转变 经济增长 协整与向量误差修正模型 |
AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA |
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| Zhao jinwen.AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA[J].China Economic Quarterly,2004(3):819-838. |
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| Authors: | Zhao jinwen |
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| Abstract: | This paper investigates the long-run relationship between demographic changes, average annual wages and real per-capita GDP in China over the period 1952-2001.The relation- ship was found to be of non-stationary I(1)type in our unit-root test.The evidence suggests that at least one-direction Granger-causality exists in these two groups of variables.Our results also show that the fertility rate and infant mortality rate are endogenous to the economic system. |
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