全国统筹有利于化解基础养老金缺口吗

基于养老保险精算模型对未来中国各省基础养老金缺口进行了测算,并重点考察了全国统筹对化解基础养老金缺口的政策效应.结果显示:(1)各省基础养老金缺口在演变趋势、规模大小和出现时间等方面存在较大差异,但绝大部分省份到测算期末将出现较大年度基金缺口和累计基金缺口.(2)基础养老金从2030年开始将出现全国层面的累计基金缺口,到2050年将形成高达842610.69亿元的累计基金缺口.(3)养老保险中央调剂制度能够在一定程度上均衡各省之间的养老负担,实现养老保险基金在全国范围内调剂使用,但无法从根本上化解基础养老金缺口.(4)养老保险费改由税务部门征收和统一养老保险缴费率将有利于缩小基础养老金缺口,二者的叠加政策效应可将2050年的累计基金缺口降至434134.65亿元.(5)在实现基础养老金全国统筹的前提下,适当降低养老保险缴费率,不仅可以有效减轻企业缴费负担,而且可以确保在2029年之前不出现基础养老金缺口.

Is the National Pooling Conducive to Resolving the Fund Gap of Basic Pension

Based on the actuarial model of pension, this paper estimates the gap of the pension pooling accounts in China''s provinces in the future, and focuses on the policy effect of the national pooling of basic pension that resolving the gap in the pooling account. The results show that: (1) There is a big difference in the evolution trend, size and appearance time of the fund gap in different provinces, but most provinces will have a larger annual fund gap and accumulated fund gap at the end of the measurement period. (2) The pension pooling account will have a cumulative fund gap at the national level from 2030, and by 2050, it will form a cumulative fund gap of 84.261069trillion yuan. (3) The central adjustment system of endowment insurance can balance the pension burden between the provinces to a certain extent, and realize the adjustment of the endowment insurance fund across the country, but it cannot fundamentally resolve the fund gap in the pooling accounts. (4) Pension premium are levied by the tax authorities and the unified contribution rate will help to narrow the fund gap of the pooling account. The superimposed policy effect of the two can reduce the accumulated fund gap in 2050 to 43.413465trillion yuan. (5) Under the premise of realizing the national pooling of basic pension, appropriately reducing the contribution rate of pension insurance can not only effectively reduce the burden of corporate contribution, but also ensure that there is no shortfall in basic pension until 2029.