海洋新区政策对沿海地区经济效率的影响研究——以舟山海洋新区为例

经济发展的质量可以通过经济效率进行评价。为探讨舟山群岛新区的设立对该地区经济发展质量的影响，将数据包络分析与反事实分析相结合，首先通过收集1995-2015年江浙皖 21个地级城市的投入产出经济数据，利用数据包络分析方法测算这些城市在上述 21年间的经济效率；然后根据测算结果，以 “反事实”分析方法量化研究舟山群岛新区的设立对舟山经济效率的影响。研究表明，舟山群岛新区设立在一定时期内提高了该地区的经济效率，但作用时间有限，今后还需要对舟山现有经济增长方式及时加以改进。

Study on the Impact of the Policy of Marine New District on the Economic Efficiency of Coastal Areas:Taking Zhoushan Ocean New District for Example

The quality of economic development can be evaluated through economic efficiency. To explore the impact on the quality of the local area''s economic development by the founding of the new district of Zhoushan islands, the data envelopment analysis and counterfactual analysis are combined in this paper. The input and output economic data of 21 cities in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui was collected through 1995 to 2015. Firstly the economic efficiency of these cities was calculated by using the data envelopment analysis method in the 21 years. Then according to these calculation results, the impact of the founding of the new district of Zhoushan islands on Zhoushan'' s economic efficiency was quantitatively studied by using the counterfactual analysis method. The study shows that the economic efficiency in Zhoushan was improved by the founding of the new district of Zhoushan islands in a certain period of time, but the effective time is limited. So it is necessary to adjust the existing economic growth mode in Zhoushan in the future.