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Earnings Forecasts and Price Efficiency after Earnings Realizations: Reduction in Information Asymmetry through Learning from Price*
Authors:Guojin Gong  Hong Qu  Ian Tarrant
Abstract:When information asymmetry is a major market friction, earnings forecasts can lead to higher price efficiency even after the information in forecasts completely dissipates upon earnings realizations. We show this in an experimental market that features information asymmetry (i.e., some traders possess differential private information). Earnings forecasts reduce information asymmetry and lead to prices that reflect a greater amount of private information. Traders can learn more about others' information from prices. This information learned from past prices continues to reduce information asymmetry and improve price efficiency even after earnings realizations. We contribute to the disclosure literature by showing the evidence that the learning‐from‐price effect amplifies the impact of public disclosure on price efficiency.
Keywords:public forecast  information aggregation  information asymmetry  price efficiency  learning from price  experimental market  pré  visions publiques  agré  gation de l'information  asymé  trie de l'information  efficacité  en matiè  re de prix  apprentissage à  partir des prix  marché  expé  rimental
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