广西北部湾经济区物流需求预测分析

随着中国-东盟自由贸易区的建立,我国与东南亚各国的经济往来更加频繁,货物流量大大增加,因此对广西北部湾经济区物流需求量进行预测分析显得尤为重要,准确的预测结果可以为广西北部湾经济区的经济发展提供参考依据.文章采用简单实用的线性回归分析方法,利用2000-2010年时间序列数据,把广西物流总额设为因变量Y,把广西GDP、广西物流总费用设为自变量X1、X2,通过建立简单、可行的物流需求预测模型,求得2011年广西的物流总额,为分析物流供需平衡提供了可以量化的数据.

Analysis of the Logistics Demand Prediction in Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone

The settlement of the Sino-Asean free trade area makes possible more frequent economic communication and increasing goods flow between China and the Southeast Asian countries.It is necessary to predict and analyze the logistics demand in the Guangxi Beibu Gulf economic zone because accurate prediction can provide reference for the economic development there.This paper analyzes the time series data from 2000 to 2010 by the simple and practical linear regression approach,supposing the total logistics in Guangxi as the variable Y,and the GDP of Guangxi and the total cost as independent variables X₁ X₂.Through the simple,feasible logistics demand prediction,the total logistics in 2011 has been calculated to provide quantitative data for analyzing the logistics supply-demand balance.